Directional forecast · live
Will BTC go up or down?
A straight, honest probability read — the odds of Bitcoin rising vs falling over the next week, month and quarter. Anchored on what actually happened in similar past conditions, tilted by where the smart money sits now. A lean, not a prediction.
60%
▲ chance up
40%
chance down ▼
Historical base rate 62% up · current signals tilt -1.6pp · from 91 similar past setups
52%
▲ chance up
48%
chance down ▼
Historical base rate 53% up · current signals tilt -1.4pp · from 91 similar past setups
45%
▲ chance up
55%
chance down ▼
Historical base rate 46% up · current signals tilt -1pp · from 89 similar past setups
What's moving the odds
The live signals feeding the read — nothing hidden. BTC $78,504 · accumulation index 56/100 · updated 18:00 UTC.
Smart-money positioning
Proven winners net SHORT (66% short)
Momentum
Momentum oversold (RSI 60)
Funding rate
Funding +5.9% — crowded longs
Fear & Greed
Fear & Greed 69 (Greed)
Liquidation skew
Liquidation risk skews up (shorts exposed)
How to read this. The percentages are a probability, not a prediction. We start from the base rate — out of the 91 past days when the market looked like today, how many rose over the horizon — then tilt it by current positioning (smart money, momentum, funding, sentiment, liquidation skew). The range shows how wide outcomes actually were: even a low "chance up" has produced big rallies, and vice-versa. Confidence is capped at "Moderate" on purpose — nobody knows the future. This is general market context built from public data, not financial advice, and not a signal to buy or sell.
See the whole board
Free shows the live forecast and the signals behind it. Pro tracks the whales setting these odds and pings you the moment they move.