Where is Bitcoin in the cycle?
One index built from 17 technical, on-chain and sentiment signals, scored from deep value to euphoria — plus 754 days of price coloured by the phase the market was in at the time.
Price, coloured by the phase it was in
Each day of BTC price is coloured by the accumulation index reading on that day. It shows what the index actually did through the last two years — not a curve fitted after the fact.
Move across the line — on a phone, drag along it — to read any single day: that day's close, the index reading and the phase it put the market in, four of the headline signals behind it, and what the following 30 days actually did. The last 30 days have no forward number yet.
What each phase was followed by
Days spent in each phase inside our data window, and the average 30-day price change from those days. Read the sample sizes before reading the returns.
This is 754 days of data, from 2024-08-16 to 2026-09-08 — roughly two years, and most of that stretch was a rising market. That matters twice over. First, nearly every phase shows a positive average simply because BTC rose over the window. Second, the buckets at the two extremes hold only a few dozen days each, so their numbers are noise rather than evidence — and it shows: the euphoric bucket, the one you would expect to be worst, currently prints one of the highest averages on the page, because in this window euphoria mostly meant momentum that ran for another month. We publish the table as it comes out instead of quietly dropping the row that spoils the story. What the index does reliably is describe the present — how many independent measures agree right now that the market looks cheap or crowded. Two years of data cannot turn that into a forecast.
The 17 signals, one by one
The raw inputs behind the index, with the value each one currently prints and the thresholds it is measured against. Green means the signal is at the washed-out end, red means stretched.
| Signal | Now | State | Thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | |||
| RSI daily (14) | 60.3 | Stretched | below 30 oversold · above 70 overbought |
| RSI weekly (14) | 56.6 | Stretched | below 35 oversold · above 65 overbought |
| Stoch RSI %K | 5.1 | Value | below 20 oversold · above 80 overbought |
| Bollinger %B (20,2) | 0.51 | Neutral | below 0 under the lower band · above 1 over the upper band |
| MFI (14) | 36.0 | Value | below 20 oversold · above 80 overbought |
| Mayer Multiple (price/200D) | 1.12 | Neutral | below 0.8 accumulation · above 2.4 overbought |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.20× | Neutral | below 1 under the 200-week average (deep value) · above 3 cycle-top signal |
| On-chain & cycle | |||
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.91 | Value | below 0 deeply undervalued · above 7 cycle top |
| NUPL | 0.333 | Neutral | below 0 capitulation · above 0.75 euphoria |
| SOPR | 1.0019 | Neutral | below 1 coins are being sold at a loss (capitulation) |
| Puell Multiple | 0.939 | Value | below 0.5 miner capitulation · above 4 cycle top |
| Reserve Risk | 0.00061 | Value | low = attractive risk/reward for holding |
| STH-MVRV (short-term holders) | 1.11 | Neutral | below 1 short-term holders are underwater |
| Price / Realized price | 1.49× | Neutral | below 1 under the realised price (historic bottom zone) |
| Sentiment & positioning | |||
| Fear & Greed | 69 · Greed | Stretched | below 25 extreme fear (contrarian buy) · above 75 extreme greed |
| Funding rate (annualised) | 5.9% | Neutral | negative = shorts dominant (squeeze fuel) · high = longs overheated |
| Long/Short ratio | 1.16 | Neutral | below 0.9 the crowd is short (contrarian) · above 3 the crowd is long |
Cycle phase — questions answered
What is the accumulation index?
A single 0–100 score built from 17 signals across three families: technical (RSI, Stochastic RSI, Bollinger %B, MFI, Mayer multiple, distance to the 200-week average), on-chain and cycle (MVRV-Z, NUPL, SOPR, Puell multiple, reserve risk, short-term-holder MVRV, price over realised price), and sentiment or positioning (Fear & Greed, funding rate, long/short ratio). Each signal scores from −2 to +2; high totals mean the set leans washed out, low totals mean it leans stretched.
Does a high reading mean I should buy?
No. It means several independent measures agree the market looks cheap by their own historical standards. That is context, not a trigger — markets can stay cheap for a long time, and the index has no view on liquidity, news or your own risk tolerance. Treat it as one input among several, next to positioning and flows.
How is this different from the Fear & Greed index?
Fear & Greed is one sentiment gauge and is a single input here, worth one of seventeen. This index adds valuation and on-chain measures that behave differently from crowd sentiment, so it does not swing as violently on headlines — and when sentiment disagrees with valuation, you can see exactly which signals disagree in the table above.
How often does it update?
The live reading refreshes several times an hour with the underlying market data; the on-chain inputs update daily as their sources publish. The history behind the chart is our own stored daily series, so the chart and the live number always come from the same calculation.
Get told when the phase changes
The reading moves slowly, which makes it easy to miss the day it flips. A free account gets the daily read; alerts ping you on Telegram when the index or the whales behind it change side.