Live
Coins21,782
Mkt Cap$2.91T
24h Vol$115.7B
BTC Dom58.7%
ETH Dom11.3%
ETH Gas0.26 Gwei
Alt Season68/100
F&G72Greed
Halving558d
Backtest · no cherry-picking

Does the index
actually work?

We checked WhaleRoom's accumulation index against every one of the last 778 days of Bitcoin — 2024-08 to 2026-10. No tuned thresholds, no hand-picked trades — just: after each index reading, what did BTC actually do next?

71%
of the time, BTC was higher 30 days later after the index hit deep accumulation (≥75) — median +4.3%.
vs 57% on an average day · sample: 85 deep-accumulation days
The deeper the accumulation reading, the better the odds
Share of days where BTC was up 30 days later, grouped by where the index was that day. The dashed line is the all-days baseline (57%).
Lean distribution (25–40)53% up
median +0.9% · 102 days
Neutral (40–60)55% up
median +1.6% · 338 days
Accumulation (60–75)57% up
median +1.2% · 223 days
Deep accumulation (≥75)71% up
median +4.3% · 85 days
Only the deep-accumulation (≥75) zone stands clearly above the baseline — that's the signal doing its job. The middle zones behave like an average day, which is exactly what an honest gauge should show.
What this is — and isn't

✅ An odds-shifter

The index doesn't predict every move. What it does: flag the moments when the odds tilt. Deep accumulation historically preceded a green month 71% of the time — meaningfully above the 57% coin-flip.

🚫 Not a money printer

Timing the market on a single tuned threshold is easy to overfit — so we didn't. Over this window BTC itself was roughly volatile (+44.7% in 2 years, with a ~53% drawdown), which makes it a genuinely tough test.

Full transparency. Sample: 778 daily readings, 2024-08-16 → 2026-10-02. The edge is clearest at the extreme (≥75) and over ~30 days; longer horizons (90d) are noisier over this choppy period, and the distribution zone (≤25) simply didn't occur in the last two years — so we don't claim anything there. Forward returns are noisy and days cluster into a handful of episodes, so treat this as a statistical lean, not a guarantee. Past behaviour doesn't predict the future. Not financial advice.
Tamper-evident record
Every call, fingerprinted and posted the day we made it

Each receipt below is a SHA-256 fingerprint of exactly what we published that UTC day — the proven-winner consensus reading and the raw Hyperliquid snapshot it was derived from — posted to our public Telegram channel in real time. Each receipt embeds the previous day's fingerprint, so the whole record is one append-only chain: no past day can be edited, deleted, re-ordered or back-dated without breaking every day that follows and contradicting a public post we already made. The raw data behind every hash is published right here, so you never take our word for it.

32 daily receipts · unbroken chain since 2026-08-31 · head c0998ab69608…
2026-10-01
sha256 c0998ab69608d1dbaa19ea3455d700d8…
2026-09-30
sha256 cacc77c25a00dc9c4aed79d7ff2fada9…
2026-09-29
sha256 efaf9708a248b95d4174f8b8af4120a4…
2026-09-28
sha256 8b2e3ff21df103a4e12b1259638d811e…
2026-09-27
sha256 1ba4f510df79c56fa02d753a4b257ecc…
2026-09-26
sha256 ae4ddde345cd3928884e5257ec304916…
2026-09-25
sha256 fe37768b79c96a2c23e693c28c778eef…
2026-09-24
sha256 0c80dcebe7309abdf1e2ee0acbc83374…
2026-09-23
sha256 d8aa5ba76997b0a46161216ba58e66cd…
2026-09-22
sha256 15d878ebc734725a7f2de58cef3bc09b…
2026-09-21
sha256 544d8195a366e7029b59346f55c8b5a1…
2026-09-20
sha256 c5d024b503055e7ab5c33c9dbd4b46cb…
2026-09-19
sha256 40fdc9526b2ecd20c39ae1d650443ee6…
2026-09-18
sha256 71c54da2ed9253721fb9a3089f24d947…
2026-09-17
sha256 c106385785847adc46a6be2184886e54…
2026-09-16
sha256 7a720385c82fd51b31f8b0225e011de0…
2026-09-15
sha256 34ed0d7f9627f9dc5089005410301c11…
2026-09-14
sha256 a32122850760cfe539e76d8e2a937f51…
2026-09-13
sha256 b062f47c370ae31c48ef5ad1a8bd61f0…
2026-09-12
sha256 bf0a7fe1cb5cf4216baa4492c85708cd…
2026-09-11
sha256 041e9e1cdfcac7c98a2a916db4d071a1…
2026-09-10
sha256 11bc0b9732f903c0ae78345c5fdb5a85…
2026-09-09
sha256 e944534b0a141bf27986b6fc191b7204…
2026-09-08
sha256 d4fb2cddc5c84945c1511852a9444b6a…
2026-09-07
sha256 ed3f57baaf40f378845c61271ff9001a…
2026-09-06
sha256 ea30fcce84150fdb8ee64953268ef70b…
2026-09-05
sha256 ffaa510d71c79a9cbce76f3d3870d8b4…
2026-09-04
sha256 c11695358bd4240d10185d0ef9855cb0…
2026-09-03
sha256 4bbfd48beba8ec5e0df7d06d6a36f207…
2026-09-02
sha256 adb9d71adebd8095a632cae4cb1f0a7e…
2026-09-01
sha256 3138e7c10559ce0f66d31bb5df0a5ef3…
2026-08-31
sha256 6991b748581832abf2c3717f2b1f802c…

✅ What this proves

That each day's published reading is byte-for-byte unchanged and was witnessed at a time we cannot set (Telegram's server clock). This kills the one fraud the smart-money-guru category runs on: quietly editing or back-dating a track record after the outcome is known.

⚠️ What it does NOT prove

This proves timing and integrity only. It does NOT prove our whale data is correct, that the proven-winner rules are fair, or that following the signals is profitable — the cryptography sits downstream of inputs we generate, so we could faithfully notarize a mistake. It only stops us from quietly editing the record afterward. Any performance numbers shown elsewhere are self-computed and are NOT covered by these hashes.

Verify it yourself — download our zero-dependency verifier and recompute every hash from the published data. Always check each hash against its Telegram post: this page can be faked by us, the witness cannot. verify.py · receipts.jsonl · methodology
Live now · index at 50/100

See where the index is today
Free gets you the full index, on-chain trends and the 2-year chart. Pro pings your Telegram the moment it hits ≥75 — so you don't have to watch.

Backtest computed live from WhaleRoom's own 2-year index history. Not financial advice — information and analysis for educational purposes only. Crypto trading carries risk.