Backtest · no cherry-picking
Does the index
actually work?
We checked WhaleRoom's accumulation index against every one of the last 733 days of Bitcoin — 2024-08 to 2026-08. No tuned thresholds, no hand-picked trades — just: after each index reading, what did BTC actually do next?
68%
of the time, BTC was higher 30 days later after the index hit deep accumulation (≥75) — median +3.8%.
vs 54% on an average day · sample: 79 deep-accumulation days
The deeper the accumulation reading, the better the odds
Share of days where BTC was up 30 days later, grouped by where the index was that day. The dashed line is the all-days baseline (54%).
What this is — and isn't
✅ An odds-shifter
The index doesn't predict every move. What it does: flag the moments when the odds tilt. Deep accumulation historically preceded a green month 68% of the time — meaningfully above the 54% coin-flip.
🚫 Not a money printer
Timing the market on a single tuned threshold is easy to overfit — so we didn't. Over this window BTC itself was roughly flat (+9.0% in 2 years, with a ~53% drawdown), which makes it a genuinely tough test.
Full transparency. Sample: 733 daily readings, 2024-08-16 → 2026-08-18. The edge is clearest at the extreme (≥75) and over ~30 days; longer horizons (90d) are noisier over this choppy period, and the distribution zone (≤25) simply didn't occur in the last two years — so we don't claim anything there. Forward returns are noisy and days cluster into a handful of episodes, so treat this as a statistical lean, not a guarantee. Past behaviour doesn't predict the future. Not financial advice.
Live now · index at 69/100
See where the index is today
Free gets you the full index, on-chain trends and the 2-year chart. Pro pings your Telegram the moment it hits ≥75 — so you don't have to watch.